What Actually Happened to Justin Thomas at Augusta on Friday?
Detailing Justin Thomas' errors during the final four holes of his second round at the 2024 Masters, which sent him plummeting down the leaderboard from T17 to a missed cut.
I have long wanted to leverage the The Masters’ boundary-pushing "every shot" feature for a post, but could never decide the proper application. However, when chaos descended upon Augusta National during the final few hours of round two this year, I was certain there would be something non-televised and interesting to dissect. Justin Thomas provided the goods. His final four holes of round two caused him to go from inside the top 20 to outside the cut line, the most profound and condensed collapse among any of the top players, and we weren’t shown any of it on TV.
At a glance, Thomas was playing pretty well through his first 32 holes. After a scrappy yet momentum-less round one of even par, Thomas was again even par through his first 14 holes in the second round. Though being merely at even par may appear middling, the course was playing extremely hard on Friday. He was only six shots back of the leaders at the time before disaster struck.
Hardly any of JT’s round appeared on the main broadcast making it ripe for a thorough review utilizing the “every shot” feature. There were several factors leading to a lack of live coverage for JT including his non-threatening position on the leaderboard and lack of outstanding play prior to the event. Beyond that, the frenzied on-course situation also dictated what was being shown as several of the tournament favorites were also still on the course trying desperately to either hold on near the lead like Scheffler or battle to stay inside the cut line like Rahm. There were too many simultaneous storylines to follow all at once and JT’s collapse was one of the odd ones out. Regardless, I was keen to understand how this mess occurred.
In many ways, witnessing the compounding of mistakes and general poor play from tour pros can be more insightful than seeing every shot from the guys at the top of the leaderboard who are pretty much doing everything well. It’s wonderful to be able to see every shot from the best players’ rounds, however these rounds are usually quite boring. A passionate golf fan already knows what one of these rounds looks like. Yet, when a professional is performing poorly, not only is it more aligned with an amateur’s game, but it’s easier to comprehend how bogeys (or worse) are created through incremental errors and also witness how the best players attempt to navigate trouble and avoid big numbers. After a miss, pros do not often attempt risky low-percentage, high difficulty recovery shots to immediately get themselves back in Position A. Instead, they usually execute the most sensible shot based on their newfound circumstances. They demonstrate patience.
Additionally, the visual footage of each shot provided by The Masters adds layers of understanding which the PGA TOUR’s ShotTracer technology cannot. You can see ball’s lie, the course’s slopes, what type of swing the player is making, and the actual ball flight in the recordings. After the shot, you can also see the player’s reactions and body language, which provide additional context into their headspace.
Below I’ll breakdown each shot from Justin Thomas’ final four holes followed by some concluding thoughts. The outermost bullets represent shots being played, the inner bullets provide my commentary. If you want to watch these shots on your own, you can do so here.
Hole 15 - Par 5, 550 Yards
Driver off the tee, just missed the fairway to the left
Not ideal, but not a terrible shot
Many players miss here
No vocal or body language reaction
No direct line to the green for the second shot due to the cluster of trees protruding into the left side of the fairway
Forced lay-up for second shot
Big slinging hook with a hooded iron around the trees, runs through the fairway into the water short of the green
First and foremost, massive mistake to wind up in the water
Bad process in deciding club selection and/or distance to the pond
There is a benefit in pushing the ball as far down the fairway and close to the water as possible in order to achieve the flattest lie for the next shot, but it’s not worth the risk of truly flirting with the pond, during the footage of this shot you can see the other players in the group’s shots laid back safely in the fairway
Poor result for executing the shot he intended, the golf shot itself was flawless, it was just the wrong shot
A nasty hook around the trees which lands in the middle of the fairway and rolls out a ton is a great recovery shot to have
Penalty stroke
Drops ball very close to the pond, leaving a short pitch to the green
Hits pitch shot from 53 yards too firm, two-hops over the green and ends on the back fringe
The swing itself looked quite long for how short of the shot was being played
Immediate concerned look on his face indicating he likely he knew hit the ball too hard
Very poor execution on a short shot, even though this area behind the green was a common miss all week
Not the worst leave, but definitely a subpar result on a shot he has likely rehearsed in many times in practice rounds over the years
Needed an excellent pitch to provide a chance at salvaging par, now scrambling for bogey
Putts from the back fringe which rolls six feet beyond the hole
Uphill through the fringe, downhill once on the green
Putting seems to be the correct play from here, most players putt this shot
No issue with the shot selection
Too firm on the pace of the putt, ball runs beyond the hole and outside of easy tap-in range
Below average execution continues, but not the worst leave as the next pull is back up the hill
Six-foot comebacker putt moves left at the end and lips out on the low side
Taps in
Exacerbated reaction after making the putt
Clearly a bit frustrated by the outcome despite hitting no horrendous individual shots
Result: double bogey
Hole 16 - Par 3, 170 Yards
Knockdown iron off the tee to a pin perched on the right-hand shelf, lands on the green right of the already right-hand flag, but due to firmness takes a large first bounce over the green and rolls into a bunker
Poor spot to leave the ball since the upcoming bunker shot will be playing downhill without much room beyond the pin due to the green’s ridgeline
Downhill bunker shot, ball runs beyond the pin on upper tier of the green near the bunker all the way to the bottom/front of the green
Excellent touch out of the sand, ball lands on the fringe short of the green
Ball does not stop on the upper ledge
Not sure how many shots out of ten are stopping on this upper tier, maybe only two?
This reiterates how poor of a leave the tee shot was
Ball runs away to 44 feet, putting back up the ridge for par
Long lag putt winds up four feet from the hole
Speed was well judged, however the ball comes to rest on the wrong side of the hole leaving a downhill slider
Overall very solid effort
Misses four foot putt to the left
High the whole way
Taps in
Defeated look
Result: double bogey
Hole 17 - Par 4, 440 Yards
Driver off the tee, missed fairway to the right
Slight push the right which takes a large bounce further right careening it off the fairway into the pine straw
Disappointment in voice right when the ball lands and bounces right
172 yards to the hole
High cut iron towards left side of the green, ball winds up long and left of the pin
Difficult angle to the green and pin from here, although not completely blocked
Requires lots of skill to find the putting surface from this location, high degree of difficulty shot
Likely outcome and acceptable miss for his approach shot based on positioning of tee shot
Intentionally playing left (and possibly long) to minimize risk
Does not appear to be a totally normal iron swing from JT
Very delicate motion, probably concerned about the pine straw
However, no physical obstructions to making his desired motion here
Chipping back to the green, ball winds up six feet short of the flag
Uphill until the green begins, then downhill once on the putting surface
Bumps it into the upslope and it trundles on
Again, high degree of difficulty required to get this within tap-in range
Leaves another makeable, yet not guaranteed putt
Downhill six foot putt misses left
Lips out on the low side
Frustrated reaction
Taps in
Result: bogey
Hole 18 - Par 4, 465 Yards
Driver off the tee, way left into the trees
An “AOC Ball” immediately into the thicket of trees lining the left side of the fairway chute
Knocked down by the trees as the tee shot only went 231 yards, leaving 225 in uphill for the next shot
Previous two tee shot misses had missed right so a possible overcorrection for something, although the driver missed left on Hole 15
Immediate disgust at the ball flight
Seemed to stand over the shot slightly longer than his usual length indicating a level of discomfort with his swing and or the shot
Second shot appears to be a short punch from the trees which was not captured by the cameras
Likely completely dead behind some trees or bushes and this was the only viable option out of the woods
Shot went 36 yards but not directly towards the pin, it actually went somewhat backwards into the fairway
Now leaving 236 into the green
Tugs a wood from the fairway to roughly pin high but well left of the green
Immediate fore left signal again, definitely battling his swing
Ball lands in the gallery left of the 18th green
36 yards to the hole
Challenging leave since there is no way to go right at the flag with the next shot because of the green slopes, wind, firmness and bunker lurking between the ball and the pin
Incredible pitch shot which utilizes the slopes on the middle of the green to run above and beyond the pin but then trickle back down towards the cup off the far slope
About as close as possible, great execution
Still has nine feet downhill for the putt
Putt burns the edge again
Miss on the right side this time
Another close call that doesn’t drop
Taps in
Result: double bogey
Final Impressions, Notes, Thoughts
Ben Hogan said, “This is a game of misses. The guy who misses the best is going to win.” JT did not miss the best during this stretch. And in the difficult round two conditions, he did not have the game to recover from his initial misses off the tee.
JT was clearly not totally dialed in leading up to and during The Masters. His results before the event were lackluster, and his putting has been abysmal for his standards. His first round and start to the second round were both scrappy with a lot of missed fairways, so these errant tee shots to close out round two were not totally surprising.
For me, the main takeaway in reviewing JT’s poor finish is how incremental mistakes throughout a hole compound into poor scores. Although very few terrible individual shots were hit by Thomas, things unraveled quickly because he was never able to get back into proper position after a miss and then could not make the necessary putts. Over this final stretch, JT hit zero fairways, zero greens in regulation and made zero relatively shots putts resulting in +7 on four holes. Not good. On every hole the tee shot wound up out of position which, several shots later, caused JT to have a makeable yet tricky putt in order to salvage a decent hole. No holes were played in a straightforward manner due to the misses off the tee. Everything was a battle and the challenging course conditions at the time made it hard to pull off exceptional recovery shots. Smartly, JT typically decided to “take his medicine” after getting out of position, playing safe recovery shots but this wasn’t good enough. Even though there was generally good-not-great execution by JT after the tee shots this only kicked the can down the road until eventually a 50/50 putt arrived. This is not a sustainable way to play golf, especially at Augusta National.
However, this whole story would be different if JT could have made any of his final few putts. If just one of these makeable putts (6 ft, 4 ft, 6 ft, 9 ft) on the last four holes drops then he makes the cut. From a strokes gained perspective these misses cost him 2.4 strokes. It’s hard to find a more transparent example that burying putts inside ten feet is quintessential to success on the golf course. All of these putts were solid efforts, but, like his full swings, these shots were not coming from the best locations. None of these putts were uphill and straight. Most of them were downhill requiring deft touch and added difficulty. If the shots prior to these could have just gotten the ball to within three feet instead, he likely makes them all. But, again, that was very challenging due to the positions he put himself in off the tee.
Finally, JT was hitting the ball in places that Scottie Scheffler simply does not. Scheffler is the standard. Scheffler would never miss in some of these locations, specifically laying up into the water and then pitching it over the green on 15, and also winding up pin-high right in a bunker on 16. The cause of these issues may have been due to misjudging firmness or overestimating distance or just poor execution on JT’s part, but either way JT’s strategy was not optimal. This is something Joseph LaMagna has written about before. JT has a tendency to get too aggressive. Focusing on 16, for a right-handed player and based on dispersion patterns, your misses to the right should never really be equidistant or long of the pin. Misses to the right should wind up short of the target. And while this shot did land short of the pin, the course’s firmness has to be understood and respected. The ball was going to bounce and roll out this day. A different shot or target location needed to be played here. There’s always room to improve one’s game and I’m reminded that I, too, can improve upon my club selection and aim.
Thanks for reading.